Dynasty leagues: Jonathan Taylor’s upside, the Rams’ RB rotation and more of the top storylines for 2021 (2024)

The 7x24x365 aspect of the dynasty format is what captivates so many players.

Most of us cut our teeth in redraft leagues, some back in the days of pencil and paper when statistics and game results had to be hand-tabulated from the paper on Monday morning. Keeper leagues gave way to dynasty leagues and the super-fan had a new way to experience this great game, well beyond the confines of the regular season.

A well-studied dynasty manager will have the greatest chance for success; there is no substitute for good research and time spent analyzing the stories of today (2021) which could develop into the production of tomorrow (2022). Many times, these stories are dominated by bigger names or more polarizing events across the fantasy landscape. In other cases, a top storyline carries with it more subtle roster impact due to the value of the player(s) and production hanging in the balance.

In any case, these storylines are worthy of our attention as the results could shape future decisions.

As always, any reference to a player’s dynasty ranking or ADP comes from DynastyLeagueFootball.com.

Our full 2021 fantasy football draft kit — with rankings, cheat sheets, expert roundtables, mock drafts and more — can be found here

Let’s dive in…

1. Will Jonathan Taylor perform to his RB2 ranking?

My scrutiny of Jonathan Taylor’s 2021 value is well-documented. But that is not to say the powerful back won’t perform to his billing. His premium is sky-high but not without some justification. Taylor is my RB8 in 2021 and a glimpse of those ahead of him (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers) finds backs with true three-down skill-sets, though many with their own attached flags.

Can Taylor prove me wrong and become a three-down producer to support his valuation or, as I suspect, will he fall well short of RB2 numbers? If I’m incorrect, the result may cause a near-term shift in my scouting of bigger backs without significant receptions in college.

2. Is Rams HC Sean McVay fantasy poison related to running backs?

This may be my top dynasty storyline for 2021. On one hand, dynasty is very much a “what have you done for me lately?” proposition, and McVay’s running back usage since Todd Gurley is suspect. On the other hand, McVay showed he would ride a workhorse back when he handed Gurley 535 carries over two years beginning in 2017. Gurley’s knees would decline and he’d never be the same again.

But following Gurley’s departure, McVay favored a three-headed rushing attack which would be the bane of dynasty coaches looking to capitalize on the offensive mastermind. It’s clear sophom*ore Cam Akers appears poised to become a workhorse rusher and possesses a three-down skill set, but has McVay adapted his thinking to keep his backs fresh via a lighter workload?

If Cam Akers sees north of 275 carries and 50 receptions, he could vie for top-overall back in 2021 and restore McVay’s dynasty image. If, however, Akers’ back-up Darrell Henderson sees significant work as a complement, it may take years for the head coach to remove the scarlet letter.

3. Leadership vs. resume at quarterback

I find myself fascinated by the storylines surrounding 2021 quarterbacks Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Both have displayed athletic prowess, arm talent and size. During the NFL draft, Lance would be selected third-overall by the 49ers whereas Fields would fall to the Bears with the eleventh selection. Truth be told, you can throw the selection of Zach Wilson into this discussion as well.

But despite Fields playing on the huge stage that is Ohio State, compiling impressive statistics against top competition and appearing in the college football playoff in both years, the 49ers opted for Lance out of North Dakota State with a single year of impressive production and leadership to match.

Will the 49ers drafting for leadership upside into their more run-heavy offense be rewarded over the more impressive resume of Fields? Having to make the same decision myself during rookie drafts in the early part of the second round, I have selected Fields 100% of the time. Need I mention Zach Wilson is routinely falling to the third round of rookie drafts while being the second-overall selection in the NFL draft. I smell value.

4. D’Andre Swift’s talent vs. Detroit’s purgatory

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know of two of my favorite sayings: Detroit is where running backs go to die and Buffalo is where wide receivers go to die. Until 2020, and the arrival of Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, both of those statements held water for quite some time.

Buffalo is a good example of how poor teams can turn the corner, and a combination of both Diggs and quarterback Josh Allen has ushered in a new era of optimism for Bills-faithful. On the other side of the coin, Detroit continues to flounder though Swift has lead-the-league ability as a runner.

Can D’Andre Swift overcome a perennially poor offensive history to finish near the top of the running back rankings? He’s my dynasty RB6 overall and the table is set for a huge workload in 2021, though I may be playing the fool to think the arrival of Jared Goff in concert with the departure of both top receivers is the answer to Detroit’s offensive struggles.

5. Will Baltimore’s passing game woes continue?

There’s no questioning Lamar Jackson’s ability to escape the pocket and produce yardage and touchdowns as a runner. But as the league’s worst passing offense in 2020, something has to change. If not, Jackson’s value as a dynasty quarterback is going to fall as he ages or suffers his first major injury.

The team brought in free agent Sammy Watkins while adding two rookies, Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace via the NFL draft, in an attempt to address the passing game. Jackson regressed materially in 2020 from 2019. What does 2021 bring?

6. Kyle Pitts vs. historical tight end performance

Much like my view on Jonathan Taylor, I’ve been outspoken against Kyle Pitts being selected highly in dynasty rookie drafts. Pitts carries the “transcendent” label and, thus, has been routinely selected in the top-three rookie selections.

Historically speaking, top fantasy tight ends do not come from the first round of the NFL draft. ven top players such as Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews all hail from the second round or later.

Tight ends outside the top three or four in fantasy scoring just don’t move the needle enough to over-weight them in fantasy drafts. Does Pitts’ “transcendent” label and resulting high draft selection reward dynasty coaches taking the bait?

7. Sam Darnold’s system vs. ceiling

As the third-overall selection in the 2018 NFL draft, Sam Darnold was drafted as the new face of the franchise and the answer to the team’s offensive struggles. Sharing a division with the New England Patriots, and the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, was certain to add pressure.

After three sub-par seasons and a host of nagging injuries, Darnold is now in Carolina, and the new face of the franchise, Zach Wilson, is under-center in the Big Apple. Darnold, still only 24, has been lauded for his arm talent and intelligence but seemingly suffered from a poor offensive cast and questionable coaching, unable to shoulder the team to new heights on his own.

Carolina’s system is flush with talent and Darnold should have every chance to explore his potential as an NFL quarterback, finally performing for his dynasty coaches. Or is he just another in a long line of highly selected rookie quarterbacks who flame out at the next level due to unrealistic expectations and a short runway for success?

8. Showdown in Green Bay

I tried to let this one go as it’s arguably the NFL’s top storyline of 2021. n the end, however, this story is like an onion, with so many layers.

Is Aaron Rodgers willing to impact his legacy by sitting out a year? Was the selection of Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft a shot across the bow of Aaron Rodgers or does the team really believe the youngster has the tools and is ready to be under-center this year? Finally, is Davante Adams so good that he can transcend the play of a second-year quarterback and still finish as a top receiver?

For the record, while at the 2020 NFL Combine, I heard at least one account of a team not wanting to touch Love in the draft because he can’t read a defense. Green Bay obviously disagrees. Personally speaking, the story is so rich with angles that I want to see Love under-center to see how it all plays out. Bonus points if the team moves Rodgers to Denver for added intrigue.

Just for the record, Love is found as DLF’s QB35. There’s little confidence he’s going to put together a successful NFL career, at least at this point in his development.

9. The rise, fall and rebound of Joe Mixon

Based on DLF’s ADP graph for Joe Mixon, his value peaked in July of 2020 at 7, only to fall to 36 this past March after posting career-low numbers last season due to injury. In fact, Mixon has only had one (2019) 16-game season since entering the league in 2017.

Mixon has never posted double-digit combined touchdown production and has never hauled in more than 43 receptions. He’ll turn 25 this month and may now be in make-or-break-year territory. In his defense, the team has long suffered with poor offensive line play and a lackluster passing attack to force defenders out of the box. There just hasn’t been enough firepower to free Joe Mixon, but nor has he overcome those challenges.

Now with Joe Burrow in town, working with one of the best young receiving corps in the NFL, and Joe Mixon 100% healthy, will he finally reward his dynasty coaches? One of my favorite super-sleepers is rookie running back Chris Evans, so you know where my chips are.

10. DeVonta Smith’s talent vs. size

Is a 6-foot, 170-pound receiver too slight to play in the NFL and be successful?

While I am firmly against this notion for a number of reasons I won’t spell out here, one way or the other we’re about to find out. Of course, the answer to this question won’t come for years even if Smith is productive in his rookie year. Injuries can strike at any time.

Unquestionably, DeVonta Smith has the collegiate production and skill set to produce in the NFL. Should he have tipped the scales at 190 pounds or more, size would be a moot point. As DLF’s WR23 with an ADP of 59, a productive and healthy season may largely dispel the weight concerns.

Just for the record, Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison was also a slight receiver, reportedly 185 pounds in his rookie season. So this storyline comes down to the materiality of 15 pounds.

11. The fall of Michael Thomas

What’s the value of a quarterback in relation to the league’s top receiver?

It seems Saints receiver Michael Thomas has been summarily tossed out with his bath water. For multiple seasons, he’s been dynasty’s top receiver, carrying a DLF ADP value of 3. Not hard to justify when looking at his 2019 stat line of 149/1,725/9. Then came injuries to his shoulder and ankle in addition to an altercation with a teammate which brought discipline from the team. The 2020 season was a wash.

Now with Drew Brees retired and the team’s quarterback situation unsettled, is Michael Thomas able to regain top form? DLF’s current ADP value of 36 and WR15 ranking casts doubt on the confidence given to the 28-year-old, though I find myself more bullish. I just can’t buy into the thought that the Saints passing attack is successful without Thomas — another 100-reception year is on tap.

12. Reunited and it feels so good

One of the most intriguing storylines for me in 2021 is the reuniting of NFL sophom*ore quarterbacks with their collegiate receivers. Joe Burrow has been reunited with LSU standout Ja’Marr Chase, Tua Tagovailoa with Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle and Jalen Hurts also with Alabama’s DeVonta Smith.

There’s been plenty of back-and-forth as to whether previous experience in college would translate into more chemistry and production in the NFL. For myself, I don’t see how reuniting a receiver with a quarterback he has spent any time with wouldn’t provide a chemistry boost. Quarterback-receiver tandems work diligently on timing and in building trust when reading coverages. Coverage reads and route breaks have to be seen and understood by both, and practice makes perfect. Greater experience between a pair can only increase trust and confidence so, in my eyes, there must be some benefit.

Whether this reuniting produces increased fantasy production remains to be seen but I’m expecting it to translate here as well. If so, it will be another variable in the equation of scouting receivers into the NFL.

I hope you enjoyed this look at some of the storylines I’m watching for 2021. If you have your own stories of interest, feel free to leave them in the comments below.

Until next time, stay safe and be good to one another!

(Top photo: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)